After a bumper crop in 2020, La Niña is increasing the risk of a decline in production next year as most crops, already dry from months of below-average rainfall, endure scorching temperatures.
In Colombia, another coffee-growing country, La Niña tends to bring above-average adverse rains.
In contrast to the worrying scenes of wilted flowers on Brazilian coffee trees is the record pace of the country’s exports after cooler and wetter conditions favored growers last year. During the last big La Niña, prices increased by as much as 127% between 2010 and 2012.
“The situation is very bad with trees that wither intensely every day,” said Regis Ricco Alves, director of consulting firm RR Consultoria Rural, from Minas Gerais, the largest coffee-producing state in Brazil.
No rain is forecast for the next 10 days in the coffee zones and temperatures are expected to reach record levels. This week, temperatures can reach 35 degrees Celsius (95 Fahrenheit), according to Somar Meteorologia.
At this time of year, the trees should be in bloom for next year’s harvest. But the first flowering in August has been lost in many regions and the conditions for a new flowering are poor. The blossoms turn into cherries that contain arabica beans, Starbucks’ preferred mild flavor type.
Givago Miranda, a farmer from the Tres Pontas municipality in Minas Gerais, said his trees are wilting and turning yellow, and that the shoots are “cooked” before opening in some cases.
In the Mogiana region of Sao Paulo state, farmer Rodrigo de Freitas recorded just 4 millimeters of rain in August and the same amount in September. April to June was also dry. Even with irrigation and even if good rains arrive by October 10 as forecast, the damage may already be done.
“The situation is getting worse and even the most resistant adult crops are being damaged,” Alves said.
In the case of soybeans, La Niña is considered less threatening to the world’s largest oilseed producer. The weather has been drier than normal in most of Brazil’s growing regions, delaying planting. But regular rains are expected from the second week of October, which will bring favorable conditions for planting and crop development, according to Celso Oliveira, a Somar meteorologist. In fact, weather models point to a wetter summer compared to the previous season, when Brazil had a record harvest.
Still, some parts of the state of Rio Grande do Sul, in the extreme south of the country, may face excessive dryness at the stage most susceptible to cultivation, while the Matopiba region may also experience adverse conditions. But not enough to prevent another bumper crop of soybeans. The Pacific is expected to warm up in the middle of next year, which may result in drier-than-normal weather starting in April in central Brazil.
