A key measure of the spread of COVID-19 in the US has been decidedly bizarre for more than a week. Day after day, the states with the highest infection rates (new cases per 100,000 people) have been North Dakota, South Dakota and Montana, among the least densely populated states in the United States. The emerging response is meaningful to individuals, employers, and legislators.
In April, when New York City was the epicenter of the pandemic, it all made sense. The city has 27,012 people per square mile, the highest density of any major city in the United States. Montana has seven. As of today, North Dakota’s infection rate is 78 times that of New York City.
It is immediately obvious that density is not the enemy, oddly enough. Researchers at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health and the University of Utah discovered this surprise in an article published in June. They found no statistically significant relationship between density and COVID-19 infection rates, adding that “this goes against our initial expectations.” But if density is not the enemy, then what is?
The researchers suggested several factors that could explain the contradictory result, and more recent studies reinforce their hypothesis. The lead author of the article, Shima Hamidi of Bloomberg School, tells US: “Residents of dense places are better equipped to stay home, reduce their travels, and comply with public health warnings, such as stay-at-home orders. due to its better access to services such as home delivery.
More generally, says David J. Peters, associate professor of rural sociology at Iowa State University, “Rural America is more vulnerable to COVID-19 than cities.” That’s because “rural areas tend to have larger populations than the national average, with more chronic health conditions that increase the risk of developing more severe cases of COVID-19,” he writes. By contrast,” cities have higher percentages. high. high. high. Short residents and older people living in institutional settings “.
Attitudes may also play a role, although they were not studied in the research. Before South Dakota Governor Kristi Noem hosted President Trump at an Independence Day celebration at Mount Rushmore, she told Fox News that “we will not be social distancing.” Masks were available, but few of the tight crowd of more than 7,000 wore them. The state also refused to cancel the annual August motorcycle rally in Sturgis, against the wishes of some locals. About 250,000 attended. No Dakota has a statewide mask mandate.
The notion that density is not the enemy contradicts the most widespread conventional wisdom about the pandemic. Rising suburban and exurban home prices reflect the view that density is bad, that “our closeness makes us vulnerable,” as New York Governor Andrew Cuomo said in March. Pre-pandemic urban planners across the country focused on increasing density as a way to combat sprawl, but public opinion turned sharply against that trend. Hamidi and his co-authors believe this to be a mistake.
It is still early for all the large-scale research related to a pandemic; future work will further change our understanding. But those high infection rates in the wide open spaces of the United States tell us loudly that some of our earlier ideas were out of place. With apartment prices plummeting in Manhattan, it might be a good time to buy.
